Portfolio Links
Model 1 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Model 3 Performance (To know more about it click here)
Nifty Future Long-Short Strategy Performance (To know more about it click here)
Weekly Portfolio Performance Chart
We had a union budget this week and as expected the market was volatile. The Nifty Index closed around 23500 mark and closed flat on the budget day. The Nifty Index is almost 700 points up from the recent low of 22786. In this union budget the government has increased tax free income to 12 lakh from previous 7 lakh limit. Certainly this will help boost the consumption. For the last year Capex was planned as 11.11 lakh crore but actual revised estimate comes at 10.12 lakh cores, which is 9% lower compared to sanctioned amount. Similar trend we have seen in Railway and Defense Budget. This year railway budget kept unchanged and defense budget is increased by 12%. Hope this year we should be able to spend all the sanctioned amount on the capex as planned. We have seen four consecutive months of negative return in the Nifty. The RBI has increased the system liquidity by doing OMO operations. Also, we have the RBI policy meeting next week, the Rate cut would certainly boost the economy. The CPI inflation rate in India decrease from 5.48% in November to 5.22% in December. In contrast to the RBI's prediction of 6.6%, the first advance GDP estimate for this fiscal year is 6.4%. GST collection for December 2024 comes at 1.77 lakh crore which is 7.3% higher compared to last year.
The US CPI for December comes at 2.9% in December. The Fed lowered its interest rate by 100 basis points in 2024, but it raised its inflation prediction for the following year from 2.1% to 2.6%. Additionally, the Fed has only indicated one rate cut or no cut for 2025, compared to its initial two rate cuts.
Weekly recap:
The Bank Nifty Index has outperformed and the Nifty IT Index has underperformed the Nifty Index this week.
This week, Nifty Midcap 100 Index is up +0.42 percent.
The Nifty Index is up +1.69 percent.
Key Levels for the Nifty Index Daily Timeframe
20 EMA - 23340
50 DMA - 23810
200 DMA - 24006
Nifty Weekly Timeframe Levels
Open - 22940.15
Low - 22786.90
High - 23632.45
Close - 23482.15
Nifty closed above 20 EMA and down below 200 DMA and 50 DMA suggesting short term up trend in the Nifty Index.
Model 1 & Model 3
This week, Model 1 is down -1.37 percent and Model 3 is down -1.19 percent.
Model 1 has underperformed the Index by -3.06 percent and Model 3 has underperformed the Index by -1.61 percent respectively.
Nifty Long-Short
The Long-Short strategy for the Nifty Index has returned a positive result of +2.65 percent this week.
Next Week Update
The Nifty Long-Short Strategy's current position is Long.
Long-term Performance Summary
Monthly Performance Summary of Models
*After brokerage and taxes, returns are determined at the performed deals.
In January 2025, Models 1 and 3 returned -15.04 percent, and -14.66 percent respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's -0.58 percent return.
In January 2025, the Nifty Long-Short is up +0.12 percent.
For the Year 2024 Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long Short returned +25%, +76%, and +45% respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +9%.
For the Financial year 2023 - 2024 (1st April 2023 - 31st March 2024), Model 1, 3 and Nifty Long-Short returned +86.48%, +82.78%, and +36.20%, respectively, compared to the Nifty 50 Index's return of +28.61%.
Year To Date - 2024
Models 1 and 3 returned -15.04 percent and -14.66 percent respectively, compared to Nifty's -0.69 percent return for 2025.
The Nifty Long-Short year-to-date return (from January 1, 2025) is now -0.83 percent, compared to the Index's -0.69 percent.
From July 12th, 2021, the Model 3 is up +113%, compared to 94% for the Nifty Midcap Index.
Summary since inception
Since its debut, Model 1 has increased by 237 percent. The Nifty index has risen by 117 percent over the same time span.
Since its debut, the Nifty long-short strategy has increased by 432 percent on capital and 800 percent on margin money.
Model 1 has been operational since July 13, 2020, whereas the Index Long-Short strategy has been operational since August 14, 2020. Model 3 has been operating since July 12, 2021.
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